😱 It's OK to Feel Scared: Job Insecurity in the Age of AI

What did you want to become when you were a teenager? I wanted to be a writer. Before I attended college, I went to the school orientation counsellor. I remember the guy like it was yesterday. He had the data. Most writers don't sell enough books for them to be their primary source of income. They have side gigs as teachers, journalists, translators, or copywriters. "Baby boomers are about to retire, the world is yours!" Yes, verbatim.

He was so, so wrong.

It was 2005. Before Facebook. Before the iPhone. Baby boomers retired, but their positions were never filled back. I still get chills whenever I hear the word "attrition". I wrote a lot. Never published. I moved on to bigger and better things. I found technology. This newsletter is the most fun I've ever had writing.

The point I'm making is that nobody knows what work is going to look like in the future. You should be wary of anyone telling you otherwise. Especially if they are orientation counsellors.

We can't predict the future, but the technology world provides us with intriguing trends to observe. Let's delve into the most striking ones so we can hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

😰Yes, it is normal to be worried about AI

2022 is the year generative AI went mainstream. Millions experimented with models that created images, music, videos, and even 3D models with a simple prompt. Going back to writers, progress in language generation has created massive turmoil. Kindle novelists use ChatGPT to spit out weekly stories. Apple launched an AI-voice audiobook maker. China's "virtual people" industry is booming: it's expected most influencers, spokespeople, news anchors, and even celebrities will become "digital humans". Chinese brands are also targeting customer support and tourism with AI.

Disruptions are everywhere. Even Google's CEO declared a "Red alert" about ChatGPT. If the biggest tech company in the world is scared, it's fair to say it's normal you are as well. All of these changes came out within a year. I can't find a similar breakthrough in computer technology.

🤖What are AI disruptions going to look like in your workplace?

The "virtual people" example is cartoonish. AI will creep in insidiously. There will not be those scenes where a computer takes over and office workers leave with their belongings in a box. It will be that colleague who uses an app that makes them so productive, they get promoted ahead of you. The consultant who comes in and does magic with paperwork. And when the older employees leave, they're not being replaced: attrition.

I've been reading a lot about the "K-Shaped" impact of AI in the workplace. Early adopters will get ahead. The laggards will get left behind, and their "market value" will plummet.  AI-powered apps will be a net positive for us as a whole. Some will profit more. Is that unfair to the point that we should mobilize? I don't know. I'm not into politics. What I do know is that I want to be a pioneer.

🪧 The Democratization of AI

OpenAI expects a $29 billion valuation and $4 billion in revenue by 2024. The business model is telling. Most of its revenue will come from licensing to other businesses. It's like cloud computing, but on a higher abstraction level. Before Amazon Web Services became mainstream in the early 2010s, the only way to build a popular app was to invest in your own data centers. Now the same tech giants providing the expensive computing infrastructure will offer anyone the opportunity to build businesses on top of trained large models.

The Age of Industrialized AI, my favourite story about AI's rise in 2022, observes two trends. Foundation model (FM) companies will be your new expert systems. GPT for language. DALL-E for image generation. Copilot for code. Cicero for negotiation. FM companies are going to turn you into a superhuman worker and make your Apple watch seem like a cuckoo clock. AI-driven businesses, on their end, will create new products from a "native AI" perspective. Think like how TikTok is mobile-native. AI-driven businesses will unleash unexpected creativity: fashion model generators for retail, 3D-printed furniture generated from your AI art, original songs for your wedding based on your favourite romantic tracks, Lensa AI avatars...

The hardware could be democratized as well! Stable Horde was launched in late 2022. The project distributes Stable Diffusion so users can share their computing cycles to power the model.

When I finished high school, my current job sector didn't exist. How can you plan for that? My advice is to embrace change.  

👩‍💻 The Democratization of the High-Tech Class

Layoffs struck tech in 2022. 2023 is following suit. Amazon's layoffs will affect 18,000. Google is implementing a new "layoff-friendly" performance review system. Layoffs suck. No question. However, two recent stories give valuable insight into where, big picture, the phenomenon could have a silver lining. TechCruch reports about young tech workers' shattered dreams. Startups have lost some prominence. The Wall Street Journal suggests the challenges aren't so dire, stating 79% of tech workers find a job three months after termination. Underserved sectors such as transport, industry, finances, and healthcare are benefiting from the talent that was hoarded by big tech.

This conjecture creates a potential massive ripple effect: more accessible AI becomes used by more accessible top talent in other industries.

I admit it. I am passionate about the challenges of high tech myself. I work in that sector! Yet, using AI to solve challenges in supply-chain management or self-service healthcare suddenly seems sexier.

Not only will we need to embrace change, but also keep an open mind.

😧 What should you do?

Here are a few no-bullshit tips to make you feel better:

The urgency of the situation is greatly exaggerated.

Yes, AI rises fast, the economy is sloping, and people are freaking out. But these technologies will still take time to sink in. One of my biggest pet peeves both as a cybersecurity professional and an app reviewer is how much people cling to Excel to this day. Spreadsheets die hard.

Remember, you are not alone.

This story titled "8 Hard Truths I learned when I got laid off from my SWE job" relieved me because the author is the first to address the emotional stakes. Most advice on LinkedIn talks about networking, resume-building, interviewing, and contributing to open-source projects... I'm not telling you to ignore them. But people can't build a portfolio if they can't get themselves out of bed.

Double down on coffee chats.

From this story, the quote that struck me the most was this one: "Ultimately, failing to find others that could empathize with my situation, I was left to navigate the feelings of rejection, failure, fear, etc. on my own." Further, the author explains how missing those "asinine" office conversations enhanced that void. Social interactions give us a sense of importance. Humans long to matter to others. It also happens that no matter how good ChatGPT is at conversation, it's a terrible companion. Whatever you do, AI will augment the need for your humaneness.  

Most advice you see online has immense survivor bias.

You will never see all the failed AI-driven businesses that tried to do Lensa Selfies before them but couldn't get noticed. Don't let those examples get to you. Most of us will achieve some form of invisible greatness: a happy fulfilling life that can't fit in an Instagram Story.

Connect with a community.

Not to network, but to ground you. Here's another harsh truth: most professional relationships are transactional. Most people will offer help and go on with their day. Find people who will say it and mean it. Regardless of the future, I guarantee it will come in handy.

And don't trust orientation counsellors.

🥊 Quick Hits

• Meta Suffers Another GDPR Penalty ($410 million). The Irish Court ruled that building user profiles for targeted advertising was not a "contractual necessity". This personalization thus requires consent from users. Meta's position is that targeted ads are an intricate part of the user experience. Story
• LastPass password manager suffers a severe data breach. Encrypted user vaults have been exposed. If you use LastPass with a master password that is either easy to guess or that has been identified in a previous breach haveibeenpwned, rotate your bank and other sensitive credentials now. Story
• TikTok's parent company accessed the data of US journalists. I enjoy TikTok a lot, but if you are in a position of influence, it's a big "think again". Story
• NYC Schools Ban ChatGPT. Such banning constitutes misguided fear. This teaching resource (in French) suggests instead to re-adapt school exercises around the journey to knowledge rather than the end result of knowledge itself.  Story
• New Louisiana Law Requires Government ID to Access Porn. Experts are worried the authorities will leverage the process as a surveillance measure. LGBTQ people could be at risk of doxxing (I'd say doxxxing, see what I did?).  Story

🎧 TikTok of the Week